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Fabiano Caruana: I would take Regan’s analysis with a large grain of salt

Fabiano Caruana yesterday evening joined the C-squared podcast where he extensively spoke about his recent tournaments in Saint Louis, but also commented on the Carlsen – Niemann controversial case which every day gets new developments. Caruana shared his insights on the case, adding that he had a personal experience with a cheater who was exonerated based on Kenneth Regan’s analysis.

Caruana first spoke about Carlsen’s resignation against Niemann at Julius Baer Generation Cup saying that this resignation doesn’t change anything: “The fact that he (Carlsen) forfeited the game only demonstrated that he has some sort of issue with Hans. And that’s it. Didn’t change anything. It does make his (Carlsen’s) position interesting though, because of course, he does have to play Hans at times, he will have to play him, and it is not really a sustainable solution for him to just forfeit anytime he goes against him“. Speaking about what would happen if Niemann and Carlsen met again already at the quarterfinals of the Julius Baer Generation Cup, Fabi added: “I think Magnus would certainly have forfeited if he had played Hans in the Knockout (…) At this point, it’s just a matter of principle for him (Carlsen). Whatever that principle is, he is sticking to it and he doesn’t want to play the guy“.

Fabiano commented on Carlsen’s first interview after his withdrawal from the Sinquefield Cup 2022 followed by his resignation against Niemann: “He didn’t say much, but if you know who he was talking about, you kind of understand that he was confirming all the rumors. He mentioned Maxim Dlugy as Hans’s mentor, and this is not public information. I don’t think it’s ever been said that Dlugy is Hans’s mentor/coach/second, however you want to call it. This is the first time that the chess world hear about this“. Caruana confirmed that Dlugy was removed from “We know Dlugy has a reputation. He was removed from We can speculate why but usually there is only one reason why“.

Fabiano Caruana then mentioned it is interesting how the conflict between Carlsen and Niemann has started: “We have a very clear order of events. Hans plays in Miami (FTX Crypto Cup), he plays against Magnus, they do promotional events together for chess24, Hans loses his matches there, Magnus wins the event. Those are somewhat relevant it shows that Hans was not cheating in Miami, so his results in Miami didn’t give Magnus any cause for concern. Unless he was thinking this guy is not a good player, so his other results don’t add up“. He then added: “Things changed then (after Miami), which is very interesting. What happened between Miami and the Sinquefield Cup? In the Sinquefield Cup, Hans was the replacement for Richard Rapport who couldn’t make it to the United States and wasn’t able to play. Hans was a last-minute replacement. (…) We know that Magnus already had a problem as soon as he heard that Hans was invited to the Sinquefield Cup. People think that this was because he lost a game to Hans. But it predates that by a few days. He was already upset about Hans’s inclusion in the Sinquefield Cup. (…) What happened in those few days (between the Miami and Sinquefield Cup tournaments)? This is what I don’t know.”.

I feel like Magnus’s decision to leave the tournament was somewhat emotional and probably wasn’t the right decision. But he felt uncomfortable, that’s very clear. He felt uncomfortable before the tournament, and maybe the first three games exacerbated that and that just gave him the impulse to leave the tournament“, added Caruana. Fabiano said that the allegations are not that important as that Hans already showed a willingness to cheat: “What is relevant is that Hans has shown a willingness to cheat. If he is willing to do it once, you can speculate that he is willing to do it again. That shows a facet of his personality“.

Fabiano then spoke about the problem of catching cheaters in chess: “We don’t have a clear Authority on this matter. We have and their algorithm which, from what we understand, is quite advanced and quite good in detecting cheating. We have FIDE who get their statistical analysis from Kenneth Regan who is a statistician, he is a professor. And you have different websites, lichess – they have their own thing, chess24 I assume they have their own thing. And then you have some individuals, there is a famous guy Punin who has done a lot of videos where he supposedly catches cheaters or analyzes their games or whatever. And that’s a bit of an issue – that you don’t have anything clear to look to“.

Caruana commented on Kenneth Regan’s analysis of Hans Niemann’s games from the last two years where he did not find anything suspicious about Hans’s play. He said that he would take Regan’s analysis with a large grain of salt, mentioning the case where he had no doubt about the player was cheating, but he was exonerated based on Kenneth Regan’s analysis: “I would take Regan’s analysis with the large grain of salt, and the reason why is not because I have any insight into his algorithm or his methods, but because I know of a case of, a very high profile case, where with absolute certainty I can say that someone was cheating in an important event. And the person was investigated and was also exonerated based on Regan’s analysis. And I am certain that there was cheating. There is no doubt in my mind that this person was cheating and they got away with it.“. See the complete video below

See the timetable of happenings related to Carlsen – Niemann case below the video

The timetable of happenings related to Carlsen – Niemann case:

5-SepBREAKING: Magnus Carlsen withdraws from the Sinquefield Cup 2022
5-SepPossible reasons of Magnus Carlsen’s withdrawal from the Sinquefield Cup 2022
5-SepHans Niemann was thoroughly checked before the fourth round of the Sinquefield Cup (VIDEO)
5-SepSinquefield Cup’s players and organizers react to Carlsen’s withdrawal from the tournament
5-SepHans Niemann R4 post-game interview: At least I got to beat Magnus Carlsen before he left
6-SepSinquefield Cup 2022 improves anti-cheating measures after Carlsen’s withdrawal
6-SepFabiano Caruana: Can’t wait to hear more about the Hans effect on The Magnus Effect
6-SepReactions to Magnus Carlsen’s withdrawal from the Sinquefield Cup 2022
6-SepNiemann’s emotional confession R5 post-game interview: I cheated in random games on and this was the biggest mistake in my life
7-SepReactions to Hans Niemann’s interview
7-SepHans Niemann: I’d like to see what Nakamura has to say now
8-SepHans Niemann R6 post-game interview: The silence of my critics speaks for itself
8-SepElon Musk comments on accusations towards Hans Niemann
8-SepGarry Kasparov about Carlsen’s withdrawal: It’s an act with no precedent in the past 50 years explains its decision to remove Hans Niemann from the platform in the official statement
9-SepDaniel Rensch about’s statement: This tweet speaks for itself
9-SepHikaru Nakamura reacts to Hans Niemann’s interview
9-SepSusan Polgar about Niemann – Carlsen case: The professional reputation of many parties is at stake
9-SepGarry Kasparov: Unless the chess world is to be dragged down into endless pathetic rumors, clear statements must be made
9-SepNiemann keeps analyzing his game with MVL while getting checked with the anti-cheating device (VIDEO)
9-SepHans Niemann R7 post-game interview: It is absolutely ridiculous to play chess under these conditions
10-SepHikaru Nakamura and Daniel Naroditsky speak about cheating in chess
10-SepHans Niemann’s fans gather in front of the Saint Louis Chess Club
10-SepSinquefield Cup Chief Arbiter’s statement: We have no indication that any player has been playing unfairly in the Sinquefield Cup 2022
11-SepNew allegations within Niemann – Carlsen case: Hans Niemann performs much better with live DGT boards
11-SepNigel Davies, “If Carlsen does not speak soon, the FIDE Ethics Commission should act”
11-SepAlexander Grischuk about Niemann – Carlsen case: Magnus freaked out for a reason
11-SepRichard Rapport suggests a polygraph test to manage cheating in chess and protect players who are falsely accused
11-SepAlexei Shirov: Hans Niemann’s last GM norm looks suspicious
12-SepHans Niemann after the end of the Sinquefield Cup 2022: It was a lot to handle and I wasn’t able to manage my nerves
13-SepS.L. Narayanan: I believe FIDE has to take more stringent measures for both online as well as OTB
13-SepHans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen to meet at the Julius Baer Generation Cup
14-SepHans Niemann to be back at the Saint Louis Chess Club for the 2022 Fall Chess Classic
15-SepFabiano Caruana on Carlsen’s withdrawal: I do not think Niemann cheated in this tournament
16-SepLeonard Barden for Guardian on Niemann – Carlsen case: It is time for FIDE to step in
16-SepStephen Colbert jokes about the latest accusations against Hans Niemann in his late night talk show
18-SepAlejandro Ramirez shares his insights on Carlsen’s withdrawal: I don’t think Hans cheated
19-SepMagnus Carlsen resignes against Hans Niemann in the second move
19-SepSusan Polgar on Carlsen’s resignation against Niemann: Definitely a protest move!
19-SepHammer says Carlsen should be sanctioned in live Norwegian TV program
19-SepFair-Play specialist Kenneth Regan: Niemann played well, but not too well
19-SepLevon Aronian: I believe Niemann hasn’t been the cleanest person when it comes to online chess
19-SepMagnus Carlsen applauds Pragg for the fantastic game
19-SepReactions to Magnus Carlsen’s resignation
19-SepNiemann’s and Carlsen’s facial expressions during their 2-move game
20-SepCarlsen will not give any interviews during the tournament
20-SepAnish Giri: we know about online cheating by multiple other chess players
20-SepNakamura on Carlsen – Nieman Julius Baer game
20-SepMartin B. Justesen: Carlsen is handling the merger like Elon Musk did with the purchase of Twitter
20-SepCarlsen’s resignation is the top story in Norwegian newspapers
20-SepWhy was Hans Niemann invited to the Julius Baer Generation Cup?
20-SepNaroditsky: I am pretty confident that Magnus believes Niemann has cheated over the board before Saint Louis
20-SepThe Carlsen – Niemann conflict is more recent than everyone thinks?
20-SepWhat if Magnus Carlsen and Hans Niemann meet in the Julius Baer Generation Cup Knockout phase?
21-SepLevon Aronian on 21-move loss to Niemann: Hans played very strange moves
21-SepFIDE closely follows Carlsen – Niemann case, a statement to come
21-SepEmil Sutovsky: FIDE is concerned about recent developments of Carlsen – Niemann case
21-SepBREAKING! Magnus Carlsen: cheaters should not be taken lightly either online or OTB
21-SepNiemann’s mentor whom Carlsen mentions in the interview was banned from for cheating?!
22-SepSusan Polgar: Sadly, the performances of other young talents are overshadowed
22-SepAnish Giri about the recent chess drama: It’s moving in circles a little bit

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