Azerisport’s analysis concludes that Azerbaijani chess players have little chance to qualify for the Candidates Tournament 2012. Besides the three top finishers from the World Cup 2011 (Svidler, Grischuk, and Ivanchuk), and the player who loses the World Chess Championship 2012, there are only four places left.
Three players will qualify based on the average rating (FIDE List of July 2011 & January 2012 count), and one player will be nominated by the organizer.
With Carlsen and Aronian firmly entrenched in the 2800+ club, and assuming that Carlsen won’t cancel like in the previous cycle, there will be only one place left to qualify by rating. Vladimir Kramnik and Sergey Karjakin will be eying the vacant spot.
Azerbaijan players are not far behind but they will need a giant rating leap until January in order to achieve the miracle. With Aronian in the field, is it practically impossible to hope to host the Tournament in Baku and win one seat by nomination.
Azerisport highlights that the rating calculation is very important to all interested players and this is the reason why Kramnik and Karjakin will skip the European Team Championship. Russia is very ambitious on the international scene, which is also confirmed by the appointment of the new head coach, but their top players might prefer to attend personal business first.
Kramnik already missed the World Team Championship in order to play “his” Dortmund super-tournament. This was a good decision as he won the record 10th trophy and improved personal elo. But Bareev was probably not happy.
Azerisport also believes that Khanty-Mansiysk is going to bid for the Candidates Tournament and that they already have their favorite for seeding into the cycle – the Ugorian GM Dmitri Jakovenko.