The Chess Master and Data Scientist Nate Solon begins his analysis on the Carlsen-Nieman case with, “In the effort to determine if Hans Niemann is guilty of cheating, the chess world has moved on to the only thing less reputable than beads: statistics .” With this beautiful punch line, Solon has dived into a detailed, yet balanced, statistical analysis of Hans Niemann games, based on average centipawn loss. “I analyzed every move from every game with Stockfish 15 at depth 18. I then calculated the centipawn loss of each move and compared the performance of the different players,” says Solon. He explains, “I’ve heard people say that Niemann has been playing more accurately than Carlsen. This isn’t what I found in the data. Over the past three years, Niemann’s play has been substantially less accurate than Carlsen’s , and comparable to other young players who have made big rating jumps in the same period.” Solon concludes, “Does this prove that Niemann didn’t cheat? No, it just shows that the analysis currently being used to implicate him doesn’t hold up .” Read the full analysis of Nate Solon here
In the article, Nate Solon takes a look at the FM Yosha Iglesias video with “the most incriminating evidence against Hans Niemann” – “The analysis was initially popularized in a YouTube video by FM Yosha Iglesias. It was then picked up by Hikaru Nakamura. Even the New York Times commented that, “At times, his play is so accurate that it leaves audiences and opponents alike in disbelief.” In the past week, these numbers became the centerpiece for the case that Niemann cheated in over-the-board chess. There was just one problem: no one seemed to know what they meant.” Solon dives deep into the Let’s Check mechanism and puts in doubt the findings of gambit-man. “the feature is not designed to catch cheaters. In fact, the Chessbase documentation explicitly says this feature should not be used for cheat detection.”
The timeline of events related to the Carlsen – Niemann case:
Date News 5-Sep BREAKING: Magnus Carlsen withdraws from the Sinquefield Cup 2022 5-Sep Possible reasons of Magnus Carlsen’s withdrawal from the Sinquefield Cup 2022 5-Sep Hans Niemann was thoroughly checked before the fourth round of the Sinquefield Cup (VIDEO) 5-Sep Sinquefield Cup’s players and organizers react to Carlsen’s withdrawal from the tournament 5-Sep Hans Niemann R4 post-game interview: At least I got to beat Magnus Carlsen before he left 6-Sep Sinquefield Cup 2022 improves anti-cheating measures after Carlsen’s withdrawal 6-Sep Fabiano Caruana: Can’t wait to hear more about the Hans effect on The Magnus Effect 6-Sep Reactions to Magnus Carlsen’s withdrawal from the Sinquefield Cup 2022 6-Sep Niemann’s emotional confession R5 post-game interview: I cheated in random games on chess.com and this was the biggest mistake in my life 7-Sep Reactions to Hans Niemann’s interview 7-Sep Hans Niemann: I’d like to see what Nakamura has to say now 8-Sep Hans Niemann R6 post-game interview: The silence of my critics speaks for itself 8-Sep Elon Musk comments on accusations towards Hans Niemann 8-Sep Garry Kasparov about Carlsen’s withdrawal: It’s an act with no precedent in the past 50 years 9-Sep Chess.com explains its decision to remove Hans Niemann from the platform in the official statement 9-Sep Daniel Rensch about chess.com’s statement: This tweet speaks for itself 9-Sep Hikaru Nakamura reacts to Hans Niemann’s interview 9-Sep Susan Polgar about Niemann – Carlsen case: The professional reputation of many parties is at stake 9-Sep Garry Kasparov: Unless the chess world is to be dragged down into endless pathetic rumors, clear statements must be made 9-Sep Niemann keeps analyzing his game with MVL while getting checked with the anti-cheating device (VIDEO) 9-Sep Hans Niemann R7 post-game interview: It is absolutely ridiculous to play chess under these conditions 10-Sep Hikaru Nakamura and Daniel Naroditsky speak about cheating in chess 10-Sep Hans Niemann’s fans gather in front of the Saint Louis Chess Club 10-Sep Sinquefield Cup Chief Arbiter’s statement: We have no indication that any player has been playing unfairly in the Sinquefield Cup 2022 11-Sep New allegations within Niemann – Carlsen case: Hans Niemann performs much better with live DGT boards 11-Sep Nigel Davies, “If Carlsen does not speak soon, the FIDE Ethics Commission should act” 11-Sep Alexander Grischuk about Niemann – Carlsen case: Magnus freaked out for a reason 11-Sep Richard Rapport suggests a polygraph test to manage cheating in chess and protect players who are falsely accused 11-Sep Alexei Shirov: Hans Niemann’s last GM norm looks suspicious 12-Sep Hans Niemann after the end of the Sinquefield Cup 2022: It was a lot to handle and I wasn’t able to manage my nerves 13-Sep S.L. Narayanan: I believe FIDE has to take more stringent measures for both online as well as OTB 13-Sep Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen to meet at the Julius Baer Generation Cup 14-Sep Hans Niemann to be back at the Saint Louis Chess Club for the 2022 Fall Chess Classic 15-Sep Fabiano Caruana on Carlsen’s withdrawal: I do not think Niemann cheated in this tournament 16-Sep Leonard Barden for Guardian on Niemann – Carlsen case: It is time for FIDE to step in 16-Sep Stephen Colbert jokes about the latest accusations against Hans Niemann in his late night talk show 18-Sep Alejandro Ramirez shares his insights on Carlsen’s withdrawal: I don’t think Hans cheated 19-Sep Magnus Carlsen resignes against Hans Niemann in the second move 19-Sep Susan Polgar on Carlsen’s resignation against Niemann: Definitely a protest move! 19-Sep Hammer says Carlsen should be sanctioned in live Norwegian TV program 19-Sep Fair-Play specialist Kenneth Regan: Niemann played well, but not too well 19-Sep Levon Aronian: I believe Niemann hasn’t been the cleanest person when it comes to online chess 19-Sep Magnus Carlsen applauds Pragg for the fantastic game 19-Sep Reactions to Magnus Carlsen’s resignation 19-Sep Niemann’s and Carlsen’s facial expressions during their 2-move game 20-Sep Carlsen will not give any interviews during the tournament 20-Sep Anish Giri: we know about online cheating by multiple other chess players 20-Sep Nakamura on Carlsen – Nieman Julius Baer game 20-Sep Martin B. Justesen: Carlsen is handling the Chess.com merger like Elon Musk did with the purchase of Twitter 20-Sep Carlsen’s resignation is the top story in Norwegian newspapers 20-Sep Why was Hans Niemann invited to the Julius Baer Generation Cup? 20-Sep Naroditsky: I am pretty confident that Magnus believes Niemann has cheated over the board before Saint Louis 20-Sep The Carlsen – Niemann conflict is more recent than everyone thinks? 20-Sep What if Magnus Carlsen and Hans Niemann meet in the Julius Baer Generation Cup Knockout phase? 21-Sep Levon Aronian on 21-move loss to Niemann: Hans played very strange moves 21-Sep FIDE closely follows Carlsen – Niemann case, a statement to come 21-Sep Emil Sutovsky: FIDE is concerned about recent developments of Carlsen – Niemann case 21-Sep BREAKING! Magnus Carlsen: cheaters should not be taken lightly either online or OTB 21-Sep Niemann’s mentor whom Carlsen mentions in the interview was banned from chess.com for cheating?! 22-Sep Susan Polgar: Sadly, the performances of other young talents are overshadowed 22-Sep Anish Giri about the recent chess drama: It’s moving in circles a little bit 22-Sep Fabiano Caruana: I would take Regan’s analysis with a large grain of salt 22-Sep Magnus Carlsen: Some people were more supportive privately than publicly 23-Sep Ian Nepomniachtchi: I was unhappy to hear Hans Niemann will replace Rapport in Sinquefield Cup 23-Sep FIDE publishes the official statement on the Carlsen – Niemann case 24-Sep Top grandmasters take Carlsen’s side in the Carlsen – Niemann case?! 24-Sep Hans Niemann is innocent until proven guilty 25-Sep Susan Polgar: DON’T CHEAT! It is simply NOT worth it! 25-Sep Magnus Carlsen announces his statement(s) for the coming days: I want cheating in chess to be dealt with seriously 26-Sep Kenneth Regan for Al Jazeera: I was in daily communication with the Sinquefield Cup organizers 26-Sep BREAKING! Magnus Carlsen publishes the official statement: I believe that Niemann has cheated more 26-Sep Chris Bird – Chief Arbiter of the Sinquefield Cup 2022 reacts to Carlsen’s statement 26-Sep Nakamura on Carlsen’s statement: It seems to me that Carlsen thinks Hans was cheating in the game they played at the Sinquefield Cup 26-Sep Reactions to Magnus Carlsen’s official statement 26-Sep Is Carlsen’s statement the end, the beginning of the end, or only the end of the beginning? 26-Sep Fabiano Caruana and Maurice Ashley comment on Carlsen’s statement (C-Squared podcast) 26-Sep GM Nigel Davies on Carlsen’s statement: This is a very clear accusation of cheating, but without actual evidence 27-Sep Susan Polgar suggests a lifetime ban for second cheating offense 27-Sep Ramesh RB: FIDE should have devised a good practical solution to the cheating problem years ago 27-Sep Anish Giri reveals moves of the “Beach Game” between Niemann and Carlsen 27-Sep GM Raymond Keene: Niemann could now raise stakes by consulting M’Learned Friends 27-Sep Sergey Karjakin on Carlsen’s statement: Niemann’s guilt has not been proven, but there is no smoke without fire 27-Sep The Carlsen – Niemann controversy is top news in mass media 28-Sep GM Daniel King: “It seems to have been forgotten that a 19-year-old has been thrown to the lions” 28-Sep Hikaru Nakamura comments on Yosha Iglesias’s “the most incriminating evidence against Hans Niemann” 28-Sep Motherboard reviews e-mails in which Maxim Dlugy confesses cheating on chess.com 29-Sep Eugene Perelshteyn defends and criticizes Carlsen on the Hans Niemann cheating accusations 29-Sep Garry Kasparov: Carlsen’s behavior was unacceptable 1-Oct Ian Nepomniachtchi explains what could be considered evidence of cheating in chess
